If it arrived here

Crater, fireball, blast and thermal radii from Collins, Melosh & Marcus (2005) — the same relations behind the Earth Impact Effects Program — drawn to true ground scale over Pasadena and Berkeley, with the debris plume pointed downwind of the live National Weather Service forecast. Each ring says whether its number is exact physics, a published scaling relation, or a fit anchored to measurements.

This is an educational model, not emergency planning guidance. It has no terrain, no building stock, no roads and no shelter model, and every distance it reports is a straight line. Real protective-action advice comes from emergency management agencies, who model all of that. Nothing here is a forecast that anything will arrive.